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PRAI: Predicting Riser-response by Artificial Intelligence


Deep-water risers are exposed to waves and currents which cause drag forces and accumulation of fatigue damage. While waves play an important role near the surface, deeper down currents and turbulence around the riser dominate the fatigue accumulation by causing Vortex-Induced-Vibrations (VIV). Consequently, VIV represent a safety risk and are a major design consideration adding notable costs during development and operation. VIV response prediction tools are traditionally based on semi-empirical methods. Despite huge efforts over the last two decades, the methods still contain significant inherent uncertainties and limitations. As a result, simplifying assumptions are made both during the engineering and operation stages, leading to the application of high safety factors in the VIV response calculation to compensate for the high uncertain in the prediction. This in turn adds costs in terms of VIV suppression devices and/or riser operation constraints. Thus, there is a clear need for developing methods that address the above limitations, providing more accurate response and fatigue predictions, which can be applied in the engineering phase and as a decision support tool for on-board riser management systems. PRAI will combine a recently developed time domain (TD) prediction model with concepts from machine learning. TD modelling allows for intuitive interpretation of the underlying physical phenomena, while the machine learning infers connections directly from available data. The combination is referred to as 'hybrid analytics', where the existing physics-based response model is improved based on available sensor data, and consequently the final model is alleviated of some of the limitations from the simplifying assumptions. The ambition is to reduce the uncertainties in the riser response predictions and to pave the road for applying the model in an on-board software system with a limited number of sensors.

Project leader: Jie Wu

Started: 2020

Ends: 2024

Category: Teknisk-industrielle institutter

Sector: Instituttsektor

Budget: 10560000

Institution: SINTEF OCEAN AS

Address: Trondheim