The International Panel of Climate Change is preparing its sixth assessment report on climate change, and at the same time private and public sectors demand predictions of regional climate for the next few years. Climate models are essential to both. Despite great advances, climate models suffer from large systematic errors that cause large uncertainties in predictions of regional climate change on short and long timescales. The ERC STERCP project has developed a super climate model to reduce model error. A super model combines the benefits of different models in an interactive manner to outperform the individual models; and to outperform the standard approach of combining the output of independent model simulations. We have created a super model based on three different state-of-the-art climate models, and we are now refining the super model and conducting climate change simulations with it. Super modelling is a new concept that is currently developed only at the University of Bergen. The concept stems from theoretical nonlinear-dynamics and relies on advanced machine learning algorithms. NorSuper will create awareness of this concept in the non-academic world in Norway, as well as internationally. We will develop outreach material for high-school students and the lay person, but also for those who utilize climate services. The material will be available via a project website, but also through the Bjerknes Centre’s communication channels. NorSuper will increase the uptake of our super climate model data by Norwegian and International scientists through holding two workshops. These will synthesize current research on regional climate change and climate prediction. We will use these to show case the super model concept as an approach to advance these two fields. Through leading international publications on these topics we will achieve greater recognition of H2020 research conducted in Norway and increase visibility of climate researchers in Norway.
Project leader: Noel Keenlyside
Institution: Geofysisk institutt