The ECSADES project will address important and pertinent issues related to the safe design and operation of ships and other marine structures. Such structures need to be designed according to tolerable risk levels. However, in order to understand the risks, the understanding of the extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical. In this regard, design contours are useful in describing the joint behavior of various environmental parameters, structural loading and response variables. Currently, there are different approaches to establishing environmental contours, and they all have certain strengths and weaknesses and different mathematical and statistical properties. One main objective in this project is to further develop one of the novel approaches to estimating environmental contours with clearly understood probabilistic properties. Moreover, a detailed comparison study involving climate descriptions from different important ocean regions and various structural problems will be performed in order to better understand the effect of the estimation method on the resulting design and reliability levels. Furthermore, some interesting and challenging special cases will be investigated, and methods for contour estimation in non-trivial cases will be explored. These spacial cases include the multidimensional case, non-stationary case with the effect of covariates and the case of bimodal environmental distributions. It is anticipated that the results from this project will be directly relevant to the design of ships and other marine structures, and that the results will be incorporated in standards, recommended practices and guidelines from DNV-GL. Furthermore, project results will be implemented in the Riscue software.
Project leader: Erik Vanem
Institution: DNV AS